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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Saturday 2023-01-21 · 16:30 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 🌧 Rain Spread 10.0 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

JAX
29.7%
KC
70.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.155 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.261 vs Trevor Lawrence (JAX) +0.138 EPA/dropback
  • KC on 7 more days rest than JAX
  • JAX offense: +0.019 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.037 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 22
–
KC 29
Projected margin: KC by 7 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 20

JAX

Jamal Agnew WR Questionable Shoulder
Luke Fortner C Questionable Back
Trevor Lawrence QB Questionable Toe
Ross Matiscik LS Questionable Back
Kendric Pryor WR Questionable Shoulder
Brandon Scherff G Questionable Abdomen

KC

Mecole Hardman WR Out Pelvis

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 20
–
KC 27

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:02 TD KC (8:02) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – KC 6
  • Q1 05:08 TD JAX (5:08) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – KC 7
  • Q2 14:13 FG KC (14:13) 7-H.Butker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. JAX 7 – KC 10
  • Q2 03:58 TD KC (3:58) (Shotgun) 4-C.Henne pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – KC 16
  • Q2 00:31 FG JAX (:31) 10-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 10 – KC 17
  • Q3 00:12 FG KC (:12) 7-H.Butker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. JAX 10 – KC 20
  • Q4 11:53 TD JAX (11:53) 1-T.Etienne right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 16 – KC 20
  • Q4 07:13 TD KC (7:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-D.Hamilton]. JAX 17 – KC 26
  • Q4 00:30 FG JAX (:30) 10-R.Patterson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 20 – KC 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (14:07) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to KC 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-K.Toney to KC 17 for 6 yards (42-A.Wingard; 45-K.Chaisson).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 74%

    (14:13) 7-H.Butker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 19 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 58%

    (10:08) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to KC 2, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-20-D.Thomas.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 88%

    (:31) 10-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:15) 5-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to JAX 6, Center-41-J.Winchester. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 15 for 9 yards (47-D.Harris).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:37) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to KC 14, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-K.Toney to KC 20 for 6 yards (57-C.Johnson; 20-D.Thomas).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (6:16) 5-T.Townsend punts 60 yards to JAX 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 12 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:35) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to KC 28, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-K.Toney to KC 39 for 11 yards (96-A.Gotsis).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 8 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 74%

    (:12) 7-H.Butker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 88 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 76%

    (4:30) 5-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to JAX 41, Center-41-J.Winchester. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 46 for 5 yards (83-N.Gray).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 5 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:16) 5-T.Townsend punts 40 yards to JAX 24, Center-41-J.Winchester. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 33 for 9 yards (29-C.Lammons; 83-N.Gray).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 78%

    (:30) 10-R.Patterson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.