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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 32

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 7-H.Butker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.13 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 32, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT +0.42 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP