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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 88

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 5-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to JAX 41, Center-41-J.Winchester. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 46 for 5 yards (83-N.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.33 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 88, worth -4.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 46, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP