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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 62

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(12:15) 5-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to JAX 6, Center-41-J.Winchester. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 15 for 9 yards (47-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.86 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 62, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model