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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 32

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(:12) 7-H.Butker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.41 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 32, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model