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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 23

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(:31) 10-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.59 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 23, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 33, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model