Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 78

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

(2:35) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to KC 28, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-K.Toney to KC 39 for 11 yards (96-A.Gotsis).

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.67 EP
67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 78, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model