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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 30

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(:30) 10-R.Patterson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +2.11 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.85 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -0.37 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model