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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 64

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 5-T.Townsend punts 40 yards to JAX 24, Center-41-J.Winchester. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 33 for 9 yards (29-C.Lammons; 83-N.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +0.55 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 64, worth -2.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 22, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model