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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
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Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
Sunday 2023-01-08 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

TB
43.9%
ATL
56.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to ATL: Desmond Ridder (ATL) -0.022 vs Blaine Gabbert (TB) -0.256 EPA/dropback (TB starting Blaine Gabbert in place of Tom Brady)
  • TB offense: -0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 22
–
ATL 23
Projected margin: ATL by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

TB

Carlton Davis CB Out Shoulder
Logan Ryan S Out Knee
Donovan Smith T Out Foot
Vita Vea DT Out Calf
Carl Nassib LB Out Pectoral
Jamel Dean CB Questionable Toe
Mike Edwards S Questionable Hamstring
Julio Jones WR Questionable Knee

ATL

Elijah Wilkinson G Out Calf

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 17
–
ATL 30

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:51 TD TB (9:51) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 8-K.Rudolph for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – ATL 0
  • Q1 03:31 TD ATL (3:31) (Shotgun) 64-R.Neuzil reported in as eligible. 4-D.Ridder pass short right to 85-M.Pruitt for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 7 – ATL 6
  • Q1 00:59 FG ATL (:59) 7-Y.Koo 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. TB 7 – ATL 10
  • Q2 08:19 FG TB (8:19) 3-R.Succop 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 10 – ATL 10
  • Q2 01:50 TD TB (1:50) (Shotgun) 11-B.Gabbert pass short left to 17-R.Gage for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – ATL 10
  • Q3 10:31 FG ATL (10:31) 7-Y.Koo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. TB 17 – ATL 13
  • Q3 00:54 TD ATL (:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder pass short left to 17-O.Zaccheaus for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 17 – ATL 19
  • Q4 08:10 TD ATL (8:10) (Shotgun) 84-C.Patterson left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 17 – ATL 26
  • Q4 04:05 FG ATL (4:05) 7-Y.Koo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. TB 17 – ATL 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (8:28) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to TB 33, Center-48-L.McCullough. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 45 for 12 yards (44-T.Andersen).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 32%

    (7:30) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to ATL 9, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 79%

    (:59) 7-Y.Koo 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 96%

    (8:46) 25-G.Bernard right end to ATL 6 for 8 yards (37-D.Alford). PENALTY on TB-67-L.Goedeke, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 13.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 10 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 90%

    (8:19) 3-R.Succop 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (6:36) 13-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to TB 19, Center-48-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (4:57) 5-J.Camarda punts 43 yards to ATL 36, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-10-S.Miller.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (:58) 13-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to TB 20, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (10:31) 7-Y.Koo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:57) 5-J.Camarda punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 3 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 52%

    (5:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder pass short left to 86-A.Firkser to TB 32 for 11 yards (31-A.Winfield).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (14:22) 5-J.Camarda punts 56 yards to ATL 17, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-37-A.Chesley.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:18) 5-J.Camarda punts 46 yards to ATL 25, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 41 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 57%

    (4:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder pass short left to 17-O.Zaccheaus ran ob at TB 35 for 6 yards.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 8 at the 33 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 75%

    (4:05) 7-Y.Koo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 52 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 30%

    (2:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-K.Trask pass incomplete deep right to 83-D.Thompkins [91-M.Dickerson].

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 12 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 35%

    (:28) 35-A.Williams right end to TB 36 for 14 yards (31-A.Winfield).