Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 71

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Atlanta Falcons 27

(7:18) 5-J.Camarda punts 46 yards to ATL 25, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 71, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model