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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 25-G.Bernard right end to ATL 6 for 8 yards (37-D.Alford). PENALTY on TB-67-L.Goedeke, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 13.

The Three Options

GO +2.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.84 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 14, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.18 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.93 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model