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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 41

Atlanta Falcons 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder pass short left to 17-O.Zaccheaus ran ob at TB 35 for 6 yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.21 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model