Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 79

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 10

(4:57) 5-J.Camarda punts 43 yards to ATL 36, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-10-S.Miller.

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.01 EP
60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 79, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model