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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 31

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(:59) 7-Y.Koo 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.53 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT +0.62 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model