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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 43

Atlanta Falcons 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder pass short left to 86-A.Firkser to TB 32 for 11 yards (31-A.Winfield).

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.40 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.18 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT +0.40 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model