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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 72

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(6:36) 13-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to TB 19, Center-48-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +2.02 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP