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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 6

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 7-Y.Koo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.26 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model