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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
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CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2023-01-08 · 13:00 Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 11.0 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

BAL
27.2%
CIN
72.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to CIN: Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.205 vs Anthony Brown (BAL) -0.321 EPA/dropback (BAL starting Anthony Brown in place of Tyler Huntley)
  • CIN offense: +0.115 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 20
–
CIN 27
Projected margin: CIN by 7 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

BAL

Lamar Jackson QB Out Knee
Calais Campbell DE Questionable Not injury related - resting player
DeSean Jackson WR Questionable Illness
Kevon Seymour CB Questionable Finger
Brandon Stephens CB Questionable Illness
Tyler Huntley QB Questionable right Shoulder
Marcus Peters CB Questionable Calf

CIN

Eli Apple CB Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 16
–
CIN 27

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:05 FG CIN (5:05) 2-E.McPherson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman. BAL 0 – CIN 3
  • Q1 01:18 TD CIN (1:18) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – CIN 9
  • Q2 14:17 TD CIN (14:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-J.Houston]. BAL 0 – CIN 16
  • Q2 02:00 TD BAL (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-K.Drake left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – CIN 17
  • Q2 00:36 TD CIN (:36) (Shotgun) 12-A.Brown sacked at BAL -1 for -7 yards (91-T.Hendrickson). FUMBLES (91-T.Hendrickson) [91-T.Hendrickson], RECOVERED by CIN-58-J.Ossai at BAL -5. TOUCHDOWN. Officially a sack for -6 yards. BAL 7 – CIN 23
  • Q3 10:37 FG BAL (10:37) 9-J.Tucker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 10 – CIN 24
  • Q3 06:31 FG CIN (6:31) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman. BAL 10 – CIN 27
  • Q3 02:04 FG BAL (2:04) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 13 – CIN 27
  • Q4 12:19 FG BAL (12:19) 9-J.Tucker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 16 – CIN 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:56) 11-J.Stout punts 34 yards to CIN 21, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 10 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 94%

    (5:05) 2-E.McPherson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 81%

    (8:59) 17-K.Drake left guard to CIN 29 for -1 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:15) 4-D.Chrisman punts 43 yards to BAL 16, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 3-J.Proche to BAL 24 for 8 yards (44-C.Johnston).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:55) 4-D.Chrisman punts 56 yards to BAL 5, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (14:21) 4-D.Chrisman punts 42 yards to BAL 30, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-59-A.Davis-Gaither. PENALTY on CIN-48-C.Adomitis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 30.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:33) 11-J.Stout punts 49 yards to CIN 6, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 9 for 3 yards (14-K.Hamilton).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (10:37) 9-J.Tucker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 97%

    (6:31) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 4 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 72%

    (2:04) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (1:04) 4-D.Chrisman punts 48 yards to BAL 18, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

    (12:19) 9-J.Tucker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 13 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:46) 4-D.Chrisman punts 52 yards to BAL 11, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 3-J.Proche.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 11 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:33) 11-J.Stout punts 54 yards to CIN 36, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 45 for 9 yards (43-J.Hill). PENALTY on BAL-43-J.Hill, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 45.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 52%

    (7:20) 79-J.Carman reported in as eligible. 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 9 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 41%

    (6:03) (Shotgun) 12-A.Brown pass incomplete short right to 3-J.Proche. Penalty on BAL-78-M.Moses, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 14 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:17) 4-D.Chrisman punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (1:16) 4-D.Chrisman punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Touchback.