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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 63

Cincinnati Bengals 27 – Baltimore Ravens 16

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 4-D.Chrisman punts 52 yards to BAL 11, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 3-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.74 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 63, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model