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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 41

Cincinnati Bengals 27 – Baltimore Ravens 16

What Actually Happened

(7:20) 79-J.Carman reported in as eligible. 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.13 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -1.68 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model