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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 55

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(12:33) 11-J.Stout punts 49 yards to CIN 6, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 9 for 3 yards (14-K.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.80 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 55, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP