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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 16

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 2-E.McPherson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.72 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 16, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model