4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 8

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

The Three Options

GO +3.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.63 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 8, worth +0.28 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP