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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 9

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 9-J.Tucker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.75 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 9, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP