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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 62

Cincinnati Bengals 27 – Baltimore Ravens 16

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 4-D.Chrisman punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +0.57 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 62, worth -2.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model