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CLE Away

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2023-01-01 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

CLE
35.6%
WAS
64.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • WAS defense: -0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to WAS: Carson Wentz (WAS) -0.109 vs Deshaun Watson (CLE) -0.215 EPA/dropback (WAS starting Carson Wentz in place of Taylor Heinicke)
  • WAS offense: -0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 18
–
WAS 22
Projected margin: WAS by 4 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

CLE

Jadeveon Clowney DE Questionable Concussion

WAS

Saahdiq Charles T Out Concussion
Antonio Gibson RB Out Knee
James Smith-Williams DE Out Concussion
Benjamin St-Juste CB Questionable Ankle
Percy Butler S Questionable Hip
Kamren Curl S Questionable Ankle
Christian Holmes CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 24
–
WAS 10

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:26 FG CLE (9:26) 3-C.York 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 3 – WAS 0
  • Q2 00:23 TD WAS (:23) 11-C.Wentz up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – WAS 6
  • Q3 10:12 TD CLE (10:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 2-A.Cooper for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 9 – WAS 7
  • Q3 00:43 TD CLE (:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 16 – WAS 7
  • Q4 10:29 FG WAS (10:29) 6-J.Slye 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. CLE 17 – WAS 10
  • Q4 05:29 TD CLE (5:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 2-A.Cooper for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-M.Sweat]. CLE 23 – WAS 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 92%

    (9:26) 3-C.York 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 53%

    (3:56) 41-J.Williams left end to CLE 41 for -1 yards (90-J.Clowney, 95-M.Garrett).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson right guard to WAS 2 for 1 yard (94-D.Payne, 22-D.Forrest).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 25%

    (11:56) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to WAS 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-37-D.Bell.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (:23) 11-C.Wentz up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 12 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:03) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to CLE 27, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 16-J.Darden to CLE 37 for 10 yards (46-M.Eifler; 58-S.Toney).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 16 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (7:03) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to CLE 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 85%

    (10:29) 6-J.Slye 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 39%

    (7:31) 7-J.Brissett right guard to WAS 43 for 2 yards (51-D.Mayo).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (3:45) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 89-C.Sims to CLE 40 for 16 yards (37-D.Bell).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 11 at the 81 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:54) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to WAS 36, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 64 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:08) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 17-T.McLaurin (23-M.Emerson).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 11 at the 36 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.54 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 63%

    (:34) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 31 yards to WAS 5, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-47-C.Hughlett.