Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 58

Washington Commanders 7 – Cleveland Browns 10

(7:03) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to CLE 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.15 EP
74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 58, worth -3.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model