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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 3

Cleveland Browns 3 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson right guard to WAS 2 for 1 yard (94-D.Payne, 22-D.Forrest).

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.64 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 3, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model