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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 81

Cleveland Browns 24 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(2:54) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to WAS 36, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.60 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 81, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 38, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model