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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 36

Cleveland Browns 24 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(:34) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 31 yards to WAS 5, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-47-C.Hughlett.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +1.24 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 36, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 46, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.54 EP