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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 64

Washington Commanders 10 – Cleveland Browns 24

What Actually Happened

(2:08) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 17-T.McLaurin (23-M.Emerson).

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.24 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 64, worth -1.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 22, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model