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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 19

Cleveland Browns 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 3-C.York 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.92 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 19, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model