4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 56

Washington Commanders 10 – Cleveland Browns 24

What Actually Happened

(3:45) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 89-C.Sims to CLE 40 for 16 yards (37-D.Bell).

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.87 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 56, worth -2.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model