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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 40

Washington Commanders 0 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(3:56) 41-J.Williams left end to CLE 41 for -1 yards (90-J.Clowney, 95-M.Garrett).

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.58 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -1.77 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model