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DEN Away

Denver Broncos

HC Nathaniel Hackett
@
LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2022-12-25 · 16:30 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 36.5

Win Probability

DEN
52.4%
LA
47.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • LA defense: +0.128 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • LA offense: -0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to DEN: Baker Mayfield (LA) -0.150 vs Russell Wilson (DEN) -0.091 EPA/dropback (DEN starting Russell Wilson in place of Brett Rypien)
  • DEN defense: -0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 22
–
LA 20
Projected margin: DEN by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

DEN

Kendall Hinton WR Out Hamstring
Calvin Anderson T Questionable Ankle
Randy Gregory DE Questionable Knee
Latavius Murray RB Questionable Foot
Dalton Risner G Questionable Shoulder
Courtland Sutton WR Questionable Hamstring
K'Waun Williams CB Questionable Wrist

LA

Brian Allen C Out Calf
Marquise Copeland DT Out Ankle
Aaron Donald DT Out Ankle
Jake Gervase LB Out Ankle
Travin Howard LB Out Hip
Ben Skowronek WR Out Calf
John Wolford QB Out Neck

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 14
–
LA 51

Prediction missed by 39 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:31 FG LA (8:31) 8-M.Gay 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. DEN 0 – LA 3
  • Q1 06:25 TD LA (6:25) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass short right to 89-T.Higbee for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – LA 9
  • Q1 04:49 TD LA (4:49) (No Huddle) 3-C.Akers right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – LA 16
  • Q1 00:43 FG DEN (:43) 8-B.McManus 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. DEN 3 – LA 17
  • Q2 09:47 TD LA (9:47) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 89-T.Higbee for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DEN-5-R.Gregory, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DEN 3 – LA 23
  • Q2 01:10 TD LA (1:10) 3-C.Akers up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 3 – LA 30
  • Q2 00:01 FG DEN (:01) 8-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. DEN 6 – LA 31
  • Q3 03:53 FG LA (3:53) 8-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. DEN 6 – LA 34
  • Q4 12:37 TD LA (12:37) 3-C.Akers left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – LA 40
  • Q4 08:38 TD DEN (8:38) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 80-G.Dulcich for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-J.Williams]. DEN 12 – LA 41
  • Q4 06:22 FG LA (6:22) 8-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. DEN 14 – LA 44
  • Q4 04:21 TD LA (4:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass short right intended for 86-F.Swain INTERCEPTED by 14-D.Durant at LA 15. 14-D.Durant for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 14 – LA 50

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 20 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 67%

    (8:31) 8-M.Gay 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 8 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 69%

    (:43) 8-B.McManus 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 19 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (7:19) 17-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to LA 10, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 87%

    (7:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-M.Brown up the middle to DEN 23 for 2 yards (96-E.Uwazurike).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 9 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (3:53) 8-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:29) 17-C.Waitman punts 56 yards to LA 28, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-B.Powell ran ob at LA 40 for 12 yards (32-D.Turner-Yell).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 42%

    (9:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 10-J.Jeudy to LA 11 for 36 yards (21-R.Yeast) [54-L.Floyd].

  • Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 71%

    (6:22) 8-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 23 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 90%

    (4:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass short right intended for 86-F.Swain INTERCEPTED by 14-D.Durant at LA 15. 14-D.Durant for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 9 at the 31 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.83 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 79%

    (:17) 37-M.Mack right end to LA 27 for 4 yards (5-J.Ramsey; 21-R.Yeast).