4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 36

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(:43) 8-B.McManus 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.96 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 36, worth -2.28 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model