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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 31

Denver Broncos 14 – Los Angeles Rams 51

What Actually Happened

(:17) 37-M.Mack right end to LA 27 for 4 yards (5-J.Ramsey; 21-R.Yeast).

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +1.66 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 31, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 41, worth -0.34 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.83 EP