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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 19 at the 84

Denver Broncos 6 – Los Angeles Rams 34

What Actually Happened

(2:29) 17-C.Waitman punts 56 yards to LA 28, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-B.Powell ran ob at LA 40 for 12 yards (32-D.Turner-Yell).

The Three Options

GO -3.15 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 84, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 42, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model