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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 35

Los Angeles Rams 41 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 8-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.63 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 35, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 45, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model