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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 47

Denver Broncos 6 – Los Angeles Rams 41

What Actually Happened

(9:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 10-J.Jeudy to LA 11 for 36 yards (21-R.Yeast) [54-L.Floyd].

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.92 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.74 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 13, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model