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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 20 at the 37

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 8-M.Gay 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.13 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 37, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 46, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model