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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 23

Denver Broncos 14 – Los Angeles Rams 44

What Actually Happened

(4:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass short right intended for 86-F.Swain INTERCEPTED by 14-D.Durant at LA 15. 14-D.Durant for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.87 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EP