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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
Sunday 2022-12-18 · 16:25 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

TEN
47.0%
LAC
53.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • LAC defense: +0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Justin Herbert (LAC): -0.010 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

TEN 22
–
LAC 23
Projected margin: LAC by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

TEN

Denico Autry DE Out Knee
Tre Avery CB Out Concussion
C.J. Board WR Out Rib
Treylon Burks WR Out Concussion
Kristian Fulton CB Out Groin
Dontrell Hilliard RB Out Neck
Amani Hooker S Out Knee

LAC

Derwin James S Doubtful Quadricep
Bryce Callahan CB Questionable Groin
Trey Pipkins T Questionable Knee
Sebastian Joseph DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 14
–
LAC 17

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:27 TD LAC (4:27) 25-J.Kelley right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – LAC 6
  • Q2 10:13 TD TEN (10:13) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – LAC 7
  • Q4 10:34 TD LAC (10:34) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – LAC 13
  • Q4 00:51 TD TEN (:51) 17-R.Tannehill up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – LAC 14
  • Q4 00:08 FG LAC (:08) 15-C.Dicker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. TEN 14 – LAC 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:47) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 57 yards to LAC 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 1-D.Carter to LAC 32 for 12 yards (86-K.Rader).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 92%

    (8:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to TEN 16 for 4 yards (99-R.Weaver).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 15 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:46) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 42 yards to LAC 12, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-25-H.Haskins.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (12:31) 16-J.Scott punts 42 yards to TEN 37, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (8:07) 76-W.Clapp reported in as eligible. 10-J.Herbert up the middle to LAC 36 for 2 yards (90-N.Jones).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (6:13) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to TEN 18, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 10 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:00) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 11 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:33) 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to TEN 20, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-M.Kinsey MUFFS catch, touched at TEN 20, and recovers at TEN 21.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 2 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (10:57) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 66 yards to LAC 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 1-D.Carter pushed ob at LAC 18 for 13 yards (86-K.Rader).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 8 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 50%

    (8:15) 16-J.Scott punts 31 yards to TEN 13, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (3:17) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 42 yards to LAC 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 13 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:52) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to TEN 46, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 46 for no gain (37-K.Hall).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 18 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 75%

    (13:39) 14-R.Bullock 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:02) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 68 yards to LAC 14, Center-46-M.Cox. 1-D.Carter to LAC 32 for 18 yards (85-C.Okonkwo).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 47%

    (6:14) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 16 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:30) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 61 yards to LAC 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 1-D.Carter ran ob at LAC 15 for 10 yards (54-A.Smith).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 5 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (3:05) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to TEN 26, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.