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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 82

Tennessee Titans 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:02) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 68 yards to LAC 14, Center-46-M.Cox. 1-D.Carter to LAC 32 for 18 yards (85-C.Okonkwo).

The Three Options

GO -2.95 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 40, worth -1.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model