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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 57

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to TEN 18, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.52 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 57, worth -2.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP