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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 77

Tennessee Titans 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 57 yards to LAC 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 1-D.Carter to LAC 32 for 12 yards (86-K.Rader).

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.32 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 34, worth -2.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model