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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 54

Tennessee Titans 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:17) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 42 yards to LAC 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.63 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 54, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP