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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 45

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.73 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP