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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(8:07) 76-W.Clapp reported in as eligible. 10-J.Herbert up the middle to LAC 36 for 2 yards (90-N.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.86 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 24, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model